Supply and Demand Estimates and Profitability Outlook

 
 
The following is a summary of the USDA's monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Domestic balance sheets for corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat are displayed along with price reaction in futures markets for each commodity on the day of the report release. Additionally, supply and demand estimates for key importing and exporting countries are provided for the current month along with change in estimates from the previous report. The Profitability Outlook section contains estimated returns per acre for each commodity based on 2018 Tennessee state average/trend yields and current price offerings (note: cotton prices include a seed and hauling rebate). Variable expenses are based on the University of Tennessee Extension2019 Row Crop Budgets. Prices are updated monthly; expenses are updated as warranted during the year and may be different than the expenses contained in the 2019 Row Crop Budgets. This section provides an estimation of the current relative profitability amongst major row crops in Tennessee.
 
The report is prepared monthly by Dr. Aaron Smith and Danny Morris.
 

 


 

February 11, 2020 - USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates

 

Corn

Market Reaction: March 2020 corn futures closed down 2 cents for the day at $3.79 ¾ with a trading range for the day of $3.78 to $3.82. December 2020 corn futures closed down 1 ½ cents at $3.92 with a trading range for the day of $3.90 ¼ to $3.93 ½. Increased ethanol production was offset by reduced exports. Export sales and shipments still remain well behind the pace needed to meet USDA’s marketing year goal.

USDA Summary:  This month’s 2019/20 U.S. corn outlook is little changed relative to last month, with offsetting changes to exports and corn used for ethanol.  Exports are lowered 50 million bushels, reflecting the slow pace of shipments through January.  Offsetting is a 50 million bushel increase in corn used for ethanol, based on Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production data through December and the robust pace of weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration during the month of January.  With no other use changes, U.S. corn ending stocks are unchanged from last month.  The season-average corn price received by producers is also unchanged at $3.85 per bushel.

Global coarse grain production for 2019/20 is projected higher.  This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production and consumption, and lower stocks relative to last month.  Global corn production is raised 31 million bushels, with increases for South Africa, Moldova, and Ukraine more than offsetting a reduction for Vietnam.  For South Africa, production is higher as timely rainfall during the month of January improves yield prospects.

Major global trade changes for 2019/20 include higher projected corn exports for South Africa, Ukraine, and the EU, with a largely offsetting reduction for the United States.  Corn imports are raised for Turkey and Brazil, with the latter reflecting larger-than-expected shipments to livestock production areas in the southern part of the country.  Foreign corn ending stocks are down from last month, mostly reflecting reductions for Vietnam, Brazil, Paraguay, and the EU.  Global corn ending stocks, at 11.684 billion bushels, are down 39 million from last month.


 

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19 Est

2019/20 Projected January

2019/20 Projected February

2019/20 Change From Previous Month

Change 2018/19 to 2019/20


Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield

Planted (Million)

88.0

94

90.2

88.9

89.7

89.7

0.0

0.8

Harvested (Million)

80.8

86.7

82.7

81.3

81.5

81.5

0.0

0.2

U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre)

168.4

174.6

176.6

176.4

168

168

0.0

-8.4


Supply (Million Bushels)

Beg. Stocks

1,731

1,737

2,293

2,140

2,221

2,221

0

81

Production

13,602

15,148

14,609

14,340

13,692

13,692

0

-648

Imports

68

57

36

28

50

50

0

22

Total Supply

15,401

16,942

16,939

16,509

15,962

15,962

0

-547


Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels)

Feed and Residual

5,114

5,470

5,304

5,432

5,525

5,525

0

93

Ethanol

5,224

5,432

5,605

5,376

5,375

5,425

50

49

Food, Seed & Industrial

1,424

1,453

1,452

1,415

1,395

1,395

0

-20

Exports

1,901

2,294

2,438

2,065

1,775

1,725

-50

-340

Total Use

13,664

14,649

14,798

14,288

14,070

14,070

0

-218

U.S. Ending Stocks

1,737

2,293

2,140

2,221

1,892

1,892

0

-329

Foreign Stocks

10,523

11,515

11,295

10,396

9,832

9,794

-38

-602


Price and Stocks to Use Ratio

U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/Bu)

$3.61

$3.36

$3.36

$3.61

$3.85

$3.85

$0.00

$0.24

U.S. Stocks/Use

12.71%

15.65%

14.46%

15.54%

13.45%

13.45%

0.00%

-2.10%

 

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19 Est

2019/20 Projected January

2019/20 Projected February

2019/20 Change From Previous Month

Change 2018/19 to 2019/20


Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield

Planted (Million)

88.0

94

90.2

88.9

89.7

89.7

0.0

0.8

Harvested (Million)

80.8

86.7

82.7

81.3

81.5

81.5

0.0

0.2

U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre)

168.4

174.6

176.6

176.4

168

168

0.0

-8.4


Supply (Million Bushels)

Beg. Stocks

1,731

1,737

2,293

2,140

2,221

2,221

0

81

Production

13,602

15,148

14,609

14,340

13,692

13,692

0

-648

Imports

68

57

36

28

50

50

0

22

Total Supply

15,401

16,942

16,939

16,509

15,962

15,962

0

-547


Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels)

Feed and Residual

5,114

5,470

5,304

5,432

5,525

5,525

0

93

Ethanol

5,224

5,432

5,605

5,376

5,375

5,425

50

49

Food, Seed & Industrial

1,424

1,453

1,452

1,415

1,395

1,395

0

-20

Exports

1,901

2,294

2,438

2,065

1,775

1,725

-50

-340

Total Use

13,664

14,649

14,798

14,288

14,070

14,070

0

-218

U.S. Ending Stocks

1,737

2,293

2,140

2,221

1,892

1,892

0

-329

Foreign Stocks

10,523

11,515

11,295

10,396

9,832

9,794

-38

-602


Price and Stocks to Use Ratio

U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/Bu)

$3.61

$3.36

$3.36

$3.61

$3.85

$3.85

$0.00

$0.24

U.S. Stocks/Use

12.71%

15.65%

14.46%

15.54%

13.45%

13.45%

0.00%

-2.10%

Source: USDA-WASDE February 11, 2020


World Corn Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2019/20 Current Month

Country / Region

Beginning Stocks

Production

Imports

Domestic Feed

Domestic Total

Exports

Ending Stocks

World

12,616

43,761

6,613

27,750

44,691

6,526

11,686

United States

2,221

13,691

50

5,525

12,345

1,725

1,892

Total Foreign

10,396

30,069

6,563

22,225

32,346

4,801

9,794

        Argentina

142

1,968

0

405

591

1,319

202

        Brazil

180

3,976

47

2,224

2,618

1,417

168

        Russia

15

571

2

307

344

224

19

        South Africa

70

571

4

260

484

79

81

        Ukraine

37

1,409

1

150

197

1,220

30

        Egypt

71

252

390

559

657

0

55

        E.U.

309

2,559

827

2,441

3,248

110

336

        Japan

57

0

630

488

634

0

53

        Mexico

200

984

689

1,043

1,752

28

94

        Southeast Asia

105

1,203

705

1,571

1,878

29

106

        South Korea

76

3

425

335

429

0

75

        Canada

78

528

39

327

531

51

62

        China

8,280

10,266

276

7,480

10,984

1

7,837

ROW

776

5,779

2,529

4,636

7,999

322

675

World Corn Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2019/20: Current - Previous Month

Country / Region

Beginning Stocks

Production

Imports

Domestic Feed

Domestic Total

Exports

Ending Stocks

World

3

30

22

38

71

5

-38

United States

-

-

-

-

50

-50

-

Total Foreign

3

30

22

38

21

56

-38

        Argentina

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

        Brazil

-

-

8

20

20

-

-12

        Russia

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

        South Africa

-

20

-

-

-

20

-

        Ukraine

-

12

-

-4

-4

20

-4

        Egypt

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

        E.U.

8

-

-

-

-

16

-7

        Japan

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

        Mexico

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

        Southeast Asia

1

-14

-

-

-

-

-13

        South Korea

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

        Canada

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

        China

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

ROW

-6

12

15

22

6

-

-2

Source: USDA-WASDE February 11, 2020


Cotton

Market Reaction: March 2020 cotton futures closed up 0.04 cents at 68.32 with a trading range for the day of 67.89 to 68.55 cents. December 2020 cotton futures closed up 0.06 cents at 69.31 with a trading range for the day of 69.01 to 69.65 cents. No revisions to U.S. supply and demand were made this month and only minor adjustments to the global balance sheet.

USDA Summary: The U.S. cotton estimates for 2019/20 are unchanged, except for a 1 cent-per-pound reduction in the season-average upland farm price, to 62 cents, 8.3 cents lower than in 2018/19.

The 2019/20 world cotton forecasts include a 2.5-million-bale increase in ending stocks, driven by both larger production and lower consumption.  A 1-million-bale decline in China’s expected consumption is the largest single change this month:  consumption is lower despite the positive impact of the U.S.-China trade agreement, due in part to the negative economic effects of the novel coronavirus outbreak.  Consumption is also projected lower in Vietnam but higher in Pakistan and Turkey.  Production in Brazil in 2018/19 is revised upward by 480,000 bales reflecting higher production in Mato Grosso.  Pakistan, Brazil, and Tanzania production in 2019/20 is revised upward.  Total production changes this month come to a 1.3-million-bale global increase, while total consumption changes net to a 1.2-million-bale reduction.


 

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19 Est

2019/20 Projected January

2019/20 Projected February

2019/20 Change From Previous Month

Change 2018/19 to 2019/20


Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield

Planted (Million)

8.58

10.07

12.72

14.1

13.74

13.74

0

-0.36

Harvested (Million)

8.07

9.51

11.1

10.21

11.8

11.8

0

1.59

U.S. Average Yield (lb/acre)

766

867

905

864

817

817

0

-47


Supply (Million Bales)

Beg. Stocks

3.65

3.8

2.75

4.2

4.85

4.85

0

0.65

Production

12.89

17.17

20.92

18.37

20.1

20.1

0

1.73

Imports

0.03

0.01

0

0

0.01

0.01

0

0.01

Total Supply

16.57

20.98

23.68

22.57

24.96

24.96

0

2.39


Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bales)

Domestic

3.45

3.25

3.23

2.98

3

3

0

0.02

Exports

9.15

14.92

16.28

14.76

16.5

16.5

0

1.74

Total Use

12.6

18.17

19.5

17.74

19.5

19.5

0

1.76

U.S. Ending Stocks

3.8

2.75

4.2

4.85

5.4

5.4

0

0.55

Foreign Stocks

91.11

77.65

76.64

75.14

74.19

76.72

2.53

1.58

Chinese Stocks

58.2

45.92

37.99

35.67

32.75

33.75

1

-1.92


Price and Stocks to Use Ratio

U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/lb)

$0.61

$0.68

$0.686

$0.703

$0.63

$0.62

-$0.01

-$0.08

U.S. Stocks/Use

30%

15%

22%

27%

28%

28%

0.0%

0.4%

Chinese Stocks/Use

166%

119%

93%

90%

85%

90%

4.9%

-0.3%

Source: USDA-WASDE February 11, 2020

 

World Cotton Supply and Use (Million 480 lb Bales) 2019/20 Current Month

Country / Region

Beginning Stocks

Production

Imports

Domestic Use

Exports

Loss

Ending Stocks

World

79.99

121.33

43.55

119.01

43.54

0.19

82.12

United States

4.85

20.1

0.01

3

16.5

0.06

5.4

Total Foreign

75.14

101.23

43.54

116.01

27.04

0.13

76.72

       Central Asia

2.31

5.86

0

4.34

1.69

0

2.14

       Afr. Fr. Zone

1.44

5.87

0

0.14

5.6

0

1.56

       Australia

1.57

0.68

0

0.04

1.3

0

0.91

       Brazil

12.26

12.7

0.03

3.4

8.9

0

12.68

       India

9.31

29.5

2.3

24.5

3.6

0

13.01

       Mexico

0.77

1.57

0.8

1.95

0.43

0.03

0.74

       China

35.67

27.25

8.5

37.5

0.18

0

33.75

       E.U.

0.23

1.96

0.65

0.69

1.81

0.03

0.31

       Turkey

1.59

3.4

4.1

7.2

0.35

0

1.54

       Pakistan

2.5

6.6

4.2

10.8

0.1

0.03

2.37

       Indonesia

0.53

0

3.05

3.05

0.01

0

0.53

       Thailand

0.18

0

0.98

0.98

0

0.03

0.15

       Bangladesh

1.58

0.14

7.2

7.3

0

0.01

1.61

       Vietnam

1.19

0

6.8

6.8

0

0

1.19

ROW

4.01

5.7

4.93

7.32

3.07

0.00

4.23

World Cotton Supply and Use (Million 480 lb Bales) 2019/20: Current-Previous Month

Country / Region

Beginning Stocks

Production

Imports

Domestic Use

Exports

Loss

Ending Stocks

World

0.46

0.85

-0.28

-1.21

-0.31

0.00

2.53

United States

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Total Foreign

0.46

0.85

-0.29

-1.21

-0.31

-

2.53

       Central Asia

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

       Afr. Fr. Zone

0.02

-

-

-

-0.08

-

0.09

       Australia

0

-

-

-

-0.05

-

0.05

       Brazil

0.48

0.2

-

-

0.1

-

0.58

       India

-

-

0.1

-

-0.2

-

0.3

       Mexico

-

-

-

-

-0.02

-

0.03

       China

-

-

-

-1

-

-

1

       E.U.

-

-

-

-

-0.05

-

0.05

       Turkey

-

-

-

0.1

-

-

-0.1

       Pakistan

-

0.5

-0.1

0.2

-

-

0.2

       Indonesia

-

-

-0.05

-0.05

-

-

-

       Thailand

-

-

-0.02

-0.02

-

-

-

       Bangladesh

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

       Vietnam

-

-

-0.3

-0.3

-

-

-

ROW

-0.04

0.15

0.09

-0.14

-0.01

-

0.33

Source: USDA-WASDE February 11, 2020


 

 
 

Soybeans


Futures Market Reaction: March 2020 soybean futures were up ½ cents for the day closing at $8.84 ¾ with a trading range for the day of $8.78 to $8.89. November 2020 soybean futures closed unchanged at $9.10 ¼ with a trading range for the day of $9.13 ¾ to $9.22 ¼. Brazil’s production was increased to 4.593 billion bushels an all-time record.

USDA Summary: This month’s 2019/20 U.S. soybean outlook is for increased exports and lower ending stocks.  Soybean exports for 2019/20 are projected at 1.825 billion bushels, up 50 million from last month partly reflecting increased imports for China.  With soybean crush unchanged, soybean ending stocks are reduced 50 million bushels to 425 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2019/20 is forecast at $8.75 per bushel, down 25 cents reflecting reported prices to date.  The soybean oil price forecast is lowered 0.5 cents to 33.5 cents per pound.  The soybean meal price forecast is unchanged at $305.00 per short ton. 

This month’s 2019/20 global oilseed outlook includes higher production, trade, and stocks relative to last month.  Global oilseed production is raised, with higher soybean, sunflowerseed, and cottonseed production.  Partly offsetting is lower palm kernel production.  Soybean production for Brazil is increased 73 million bushels to 4.593 billion due to favorable weather in Mato Grosso as well as improved rainfall in southern and northeastern soybean areas.  Sunflowerseed production is increased for Ukraine on a higher yield.  Palm kernel and palm oil production are reduced for Malaysia and Indonesia on current production to date and dry weather conditions throughout the past year.

Global 2019/20 oilseed exports are raised mainly on an increase to soybean trade.  China’s soybean imports are increased 110 million bushels to 3.233 billion reflecting higher soybean crush.  Correspondingly, soybean exports are increased for the United States, Brazil, and Ukraine.  Global soybean ending stocks are 81 million bushels higher than last month, with higher stocks for China and Brazil.



 

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19 Est

2019/20 Projected January

2019/20 Projected February

2019/20 Change From Previous Month

Change 2018/19 to 2019/20


Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield

Planted (Million)

82.7

83.5

90.2

89.2

76.1

76.1

0.0

-13.1

Harvested (Million)

81.7

82.7

89.5

87.6

75

75

0.0

-12.6

U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre)

48

51.9

49.3

50.6

47.4

47.4

0.0

-3.2


Supply (Million Bushels)

Beg. Stocks

191

197

302

438

909

909

0

471

Production

3,926

4,296

4,412

4,428

3,558

3,558

0

-870

Imports

24

22

22

14

15

15

0

1

Total Supply

4,140

4,516

4,735

4,880

4,482

4,482

0

-398


Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels)

Crushing

1,886

1,901

2,055

2,092

2,105

2,105

0

13

Exports

1,942

2,166

2,134

1,748

1,775

1,825

50

77

Seed and Residual

115

147

109

131

128

128

0

-3

Total Use

3,944

4,214

4,297

3,971

4,008

4,058

50

87

U.S. Ending Stocks

197

302

438

909

475

425

-50

-484

Foreign Stocks

2,687

3,213

3,201

3,178

3,078

3,208

130

30


Price and Stocks to Use Ratio

U.S. Average Season Price ($/Bu)

$8.95

$9.47

$9.33

$8.48

$9.00

$8.75

-$0.25

$0.27

U.S. Stocks/Use

4.99%

7.17%

10.19%

22.89%

11.85%

10.47%

-1.38%

-12.42%

Source: USDA-WASDE February 11, 2020


World Soybean Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2019/2020 Current Month

Country / Region

Beginning Stocks

Production

Imports

Domestic Crush

Domestic Total

Exports

Ending Stocks

World

4,087

12,471

5,541

11,182

12,899

5,567

3,632

United States

909

3,558

15

2,105

2,233

1,825

424

Total Foreign

3,178

8,913

5,526

9,077

10,667

3,742

3,208

        Argentina

1,062

1,947

143

1,639

1,900

301

951

        Brazil

1,118

4,593

6

1,608

1,705

2,829

1,182

        Paraguay

18

364

0

143

146

217

19

        China

715

665

3,233

3,160

3,810

5

798

        E.U.

45

96

559

584

647

9

43

        S.E. Asia

36

24

341

149

353

1

46

        Mexico

8

9

220

228

230

0

7

ROW

176

1,215

1,023

1,566

1,875

379

161

World Soybean Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2019/20: Current-Previous Month

Country / Region

Beginning Stocks

Production

Imports

Domestic Crush

Domestic Total

Exports

Ending Stocks

World

35

62

105

28

35

86

80

United States

-

-

-

-

-

50

-50

Total Foreign

35

62

105

28

35

37

130

        Argentina

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

        Brazil

6

73

-

-

6

37

37

        Paraguay

15

-11

-

-

-

-11

15

        China

-

-

110

37

37

-

73

        E.U.

6

-

-

-

2

-

4

        S.E. Asia

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

        Mexico

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

ROW

8

-

-6

-9

-10

11

1

Source: USDA-WASDE February 11, 2020
 
 

Wheat

Futures Market Reaction: March 2020 wheat futures closed down 10 cents at $5.42 with a trading range for the day of $5.39 to $5.51 ¾. July 2020 wheat futures closed down 7 ¾ cents at $5.44 ¾ with a trading range for the day of $5.42 ¼ to $5.53 ¾. Wheat exports were increased by 25 million bushels.  Global stocks are estimated at 10.583 billion bushels an all-time record. Record stocks are prohibitive for dramatic price increases.

USDA Summary: The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. wheat is for stable supplies, increased exports, and decreased ending stocks.  The only supply or use category that was changed this month was a 25 million bushel increase in exports reflecting growing competitiveness in international markets.  Ending stocks are cut by a corresponding amount and are now forecast to total 940 million bushels, a five-year low. 

Global wheat supplies are lowered fractionally on small and mostly offsetting changes to beginning stocks and production.  World exports are increased 66 million bushels led by a 37-million-bushel increase for the EU on strong shipments and more competitive prices.  Kazakhstan is raised 29 million bushels, also on a fast export pace.  United States is increased 26 million bushels and is projected to have the largest exports in three years.  Partly offsetting are export reductions of 18 million bushels for Canada and 11 million bushels for Pakistan.  World imports for 2019/20 are raised 70 million bushels led by a 29-million-bushels increase for China and a 26-million-bushels increase for Turkey, both on a strong pace to date.  There are also several historical revisions for trade, consumption, and ending stocks reflecting updated export data, particularly for Pakistan.  For the 2019/20 market year, global consumption and ending stocks are lowered fractionally though world ending stocks remain record large.
 

 

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19  Est.

2019/20 Projected January

2019/20 Projected February

2019/20 Change From Previous Month

Change 2018/19 to 2019/20

 

Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield

Planted (Million)

55

50.1

46.1

47.8

45.2

45.2

0

-2.6

Harvested (Million)

47.3

43.8

37.6

39.6

37.2

37.2

0

-2.4

U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre)

43.6

52.7

46.4

47.6

51.7

51.7

0

4.1


Supply (Million Bushels)

Beg. Stocks

752

976

1,181

1,099

1,080

1,080

0

-19

Production

2,062

2,309

1,741

1,885

1,920

1,920

0

35

Imports

113

118

158

135

105

105

0

-30

Total Supply

2,927

3,402

3,080

3,119

3,105

3,105

0

-14


Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels)

Food

957

949

964

955

955

955

0

0

Seed

67

61

63

59

60

60

0

1

Feed

149

160

47

90

150

150

0

60

Exports

778

1,051

906

936

975

1,000

25

64

Total Use

1,951

2,222

1,981

2,039

2,140

2,165

25

126

U.S. Ending Stocks

976

1,181

1,099

1,080

965

940

-25

-140

Foreign Stocks

7,944

8,457

9,330

9,145

9,620

9,643

23

498


Price and Stocks to Use Ratio

U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/Bu)

$4.89

$3.89

$4.72

$5.16

$4.55

$4.55

$0.00

-$0.61

U.S. Stocks/Use

50.03%

53.15%

55.48%

52.97%

45.09%

43.42%

-1.7%

-9.5%

Source: USDA-WASDE February 11, 2020


World Wheat Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2019/20 Current Month

 

Country / Region

Beginning Stocks

Production

Imports

Domestic Feed

Domestic Total

Exports

Ending Stocks

 

World

10,225

28,070

6,617

5,438

27,712

6,717

10,583

 

United States

1,080

1,920

105

150

1,165

1,000

940

 

Total Foreign

9,145

26,150

6,512

5,289

26,547

5,718

9,643

 

        Argentina

64

698

0

2

226

478

59

 

        Australia

182

573

20

191

320

301

155

 

        Canada

222

1,189

17

173

356

863

207

 

        E.U.

367

5,659

195

2,039

4,666

1,176

378

 

        Russia

287

2,701

18

625

1,451

1,249

305

 

        Ukraine

58

1,066

3

103

327

753

46

 

        Bangladesh

46

44

220

11

261

0

50

 

        Brazil

39

191

283

18

445

22

46

 

        China

5,136

4,909

147

772

4,703

40

5,448

 

        Japan

35

35

217

26

239

10

38

 

        N. Africa

568

679

1,007

83

1,718

36

500

 

        Nigeria

7

2

187

2

175

15

7

 

        Sel. Mideast

432

833

643

140

1,438

28

442

 

        Southeast Asia

200

0

992

288

944

38

210

 

        India

624

3,755

1

220

3,601

18

761

 

        Kazakhstan

62

423

11

59

235

220

40

 

ROW

814

3,395

2,552

537

5,441

467

952

 

World Wheat Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2019/20: Current - Previous Month

Country / Region

Beginning Stocks

Production

Imports

Domestic Feed

Domestic Total

Exports

Ending Stocks

World

8

-16

70

-13

-7

64

-2

United States

-

-

-

-

-

25

-25

Total Foreign

8

-16

70

-13

-7

40

23

        Argentina

-

-

-

-

4

-

-4

        Australia

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

        Canada

4

-

-

13

13

-18

10

        E.U.

-

-

-

-18

-18

37

-18

        Russia

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

        Ukraine

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

        Bangladesh

8

-

-

-

-4

-

12

        Brazil

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

        China

-

-

29

-

-

-

29

        Japan

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

        N. Africa

-

-15

0

-

-

-

-14

        Nigeria

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

        Sel. Mideast

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

        Southeast Asia

19

-

7

-

3

-1

25

        India

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

        Kazakhstan

-

-

6

-7

-7

29

-16

ROW

-24

-1

27

-

4

-7

-1

Source: USDA-WASDE February 11, 2020
 

2020 Estimated Returns - Non-Irrigated


The profitability outlook has been updated after the release of the February 2020, USDA WASDE report. For the Table below, non- irrigated yields were estimated as the 5-year Tennessee state average: 165 bushels per acre for corn, 47 bushels per acre for full-season soybeans, 1,072 pounds per acre cotton, and 69 bushels per acre for wheat. Prices used for grain sales are based on 2020 new crop cash bids as reported by the USDA AMS Market report dated February 14, 2020 for grain sold at Memphis barge points. The price of $0.65 per lb. of cotton is based on a cotton loan price of $0.52, an assumed $0.105 cotton equity, and a gin rebate of $0.025. Revenue estimates do not consider any government payments (crop insurance, ARC or PLC, MFP etc.). Costs shown below are based on the 2020 UT Extension Row Crop budgets with adjustments made where warranted. For reference, in variable expenses below, fertilizer expense per acre is estimated as follows: Cotton - $ 112, Soybeans - $41, Corn - $142 (includes 180 units of N), and Wheat/Soybeans - $95. These cost reflect a slight increase from 2019 to 2020 along with other nutrients where warranted. Land cost was estimated as a share arrangement: 25% of gross revenue less 25% of the crop insurance premium. Additional details on expenses can be found in the 2020 UT Crop Budgets.

Based on projected yields, prices, and expenses all crops are projected to have positive returns over variable expenses and land costs, but negative net returns over variable, land, and fixed costs. Producers with higher yields or lower cost structures may attain improved (or positive) net return over all costs. The table below should be used as a guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and locations. Expenses will vary among producers and production systems. Please contact your local County Extension office or Area Specialist - Farm Management for assistance in developing a budget or financial plan for your farm.


 

Cotton

Soybeans

Corn

Wheat/Soybeans

Yield

1072 lbs.

47 bu.

165 bu.

69 bu./35 bu.

Price (as of 2/14/2020)

$0.65 lb.

$9.32 bu.

$3.91 bu.

$5.74 bu./$9.32

Revenue

$697

$438

$645

$722

Variable Expenses

$470

$245

$384

$455

Returns Over Variable

$227

$193

$261

$267

Land Costs (25% of Revenue-25% crop insurance)

$172

$108

$158

$177

Returns Over Variable and Land Costs

$55

$85

$103

$90

Fixed Costs (Capital Recovery and Management Labor)

$182

$118

$116

$114

Returns Over Specified Costs

($127)

($33)

($13)

($24)

Breakeven Price at Average Yield and Specified Cost

$0.81

$10.25

$4.02

$6.15/$9.60

  

2020 Estimated Returns - Irrigation

For the table below, irrigated yields were estimated as: 225 bushels per acre for corn, 65 bushels per acre for full-season soybeans, and 1,200 pounds per acre cotton. Prices used for grain sales are based on 2020 new crop cash bids as reported by the USDA AMS Market report dated February 14, 2020 for grain sold at Memphis barge points. The price of $0.65 per lb. of cotton is based on a cotton loan price of $0.52, an assumed $0.105 cotton equity, and a gin rebate of $0.025. Revenue estimates do not consider any government payments (crop insurance, ARC or PLC, MFP etc.). Costs shown below are based on the 2020 UT Extension Row Crop budgets with adjustments made where warranted. For reference, in variable expenses below, fertilizer expense per acre is estimated as follows: cotton - $ 116/acre, soybeans - $51/acre, corn - $181/acre. These cost reflect a slight increase from 2019 to 2020 along with other nutrients where warranted. Land cost was estimated at 25% of gross revenue less 25% of the crop insurance premium. Irrigation fixed costs and energy costs will vary greatly among producers and systems. These projections include: variable expenses and energy costs for irrigation of $49 per acre for corn, $42 per acre for cotton, and $32 per acre for soybeans. Fixed irrigation costs of $96 per acre for irrigation equipment are used in the table below. A management expense of $36 per acre is included in Fixed Costs – Capital Recovery and Management Labor. This is $18 above the dryland crop management labor expense.

Based on projected yields, prices, and expenses all crops are projected to have positive returns over variable expenses and land costs, but negative net returns over variable, land, and fixed costs. Producers with higher yields or lower cost structures may attain improved (or positive) net return over all costs.  The table below should be used as a guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and locations. Expenses will vary among producers and production systems. Please contact your local County Extension office or Area Specialist - Farm Management for assistance in developing a budget or financial plan for your farm. A whole farm financial plan can be completed for you for free by your Area Farm Management Specialist.


 

 

Cotton

Soybeans

Corn

Wheat/Soybeans

Yield

1200 lbs.

65 bu.

225 bu.

68 bu./45 bu.

Price (as of 2/14/2020)

$0.65 lb.

$9.32 bu.

$3.91 bu.

$5.75 bu./$9.32 bu.

Revenue

$780

$605

$880

$810

Variable Expenses(includes energy cost)

$476

$288

$475

$449

Fixed Irrigation Costs per Acre

$96

$96

$96

$86

Returns Over Variable & Fixed IR Costs

$208

$221

$309

$275

Land Costs (25% of Revenue-25% crop insurance-25% fixed irrigation costs)

$168

$125

$193

$174

Returns Over Variable, IR Fixed Cost and Land Costs

$40

$96

$116

$100

Fixed Costs (Capital Recovery and Management Labor)

$119

$120

$137

$216

Returns Over Specified Costs

($79)

($24)

($21)

($116)

Breakeven Price at Average Yield and Specified Cost

$0.74

$9.80

$4.04

$7.05/$10.75

​​
  

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